How netbook sales are falling sharply because of the iPad

Philippe Elmer-DeWitt Since fortune notes a very interesting trend in the laptop market, particularly netbooks with the launch of the iPad. As we can see in the graph which accompanies this post created by katy huberty Since Morgan Stanley After these machines saw a very impressive annual sales growth of 641% in July last year, they hit the mark in January 2010 and April 2010.

What do these two months correspond to? the impressive advance in early January, the subsequent announcement at the end of the same month and the start of sales of the iPad in the United States in April. To support the theory, Morgan Stanley/Alphawise conducted a survey in March and found that 44% of U.S. consumers planned to purchase an iPad instead of a netbook or laptop.

The same survey opens a window to other devices than the iPad cannibalize:

  1. Ipod touch
  2. e-book readers
  3. desktop computers
  4. portable video game consoles

It is curious that the main device (after a netbook) that the consumer will stop buying is a product also of Manzana, but I guess it's a calculated risk. I understand that with the device that has not yet arrived in Latin America/Spain, we are not in the same conditions as in the United States where people can test it and use it to make an informed decision , but I am confident that we will see a very similar trend in our regions.

After all the usefulness of a iPad it's exponentially bigger than a netbook which, let's face it, doesn't do anything well (and I say this from experience, I've owned three different models with different screen sizes, keyboards, operating systems different, and I never managed to get used to one).

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Update: They send me an article written by paul thurrot which has a site called « Win Supersite » (Win = Windows), guarantees that the numbers and reasons explained by katy huberty Since Morgan Stanley are part of Apple's reality distortion field, which IDG predicted that 45.6 million netbooks will be sold in 2011. I understand that Thurrot is defending the operating system and brand he prefers, but I'm sorry, you can't shout « tampering! » then compare a survey with forecasts. A lot can change between now and 2011 and these numbers (from IDG or any other company) change a bit as the months go by and trends become clearer.